MODELIZACIÓN DE DATOS ECONÓMICOS UTILIZANDO SERIES TEMPORALES
Fecha
2019-01
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Jaén: Universidad de Jaén
Resumen
[ES] Actualmente la sociedad en la que vivimos se haya sumergida en una crisis económica que comenzó hace ya al menos 10 años y que supuso para España que aparecieran otros problemas como fueron: el final de la burbuja inmobiliaria, la crisis bancaria de 2010 y finalmente el aumento del desempleo.
Con este trabajo lo que se pretende es realizar un estudio de la tasa de paro a nivel andaluz, desde enero del año 2005 para ver la evolución de esta tasa a lo largo de los años y con estos datos realizar un estudio de series temporales que nos permita obtener una predicción de cómo va a evolucionar la tasa de paro en los años siguientes.
Finalmente veremos si la crisis actual puede mejorar o por el contrario empeorara, y si es así, poner medidas que lo solucione.
[EN] Nowadays, the society in which we live is submerged in an economic crisis that began at least 10 years ago and supposed for Spain that other problems appeared since then; the end of the real-estate bubble, the bank crisis of 2010 and finally the increase of unemployment. This work is intended to carry out a study of the unemployment rate in Andalucia since January 2005 to see the evolution of this rate throughout the years and with this data to make a study of temporary series which allows us to obtain prediction of the unemployment rate evolution in the following years. Finally, a series of conclusion can be drawn based on the obtained results and we will value if the current crisis can improve or on the contrary, it will worsen and if so, to put measures to solve it.
[EN] Nowadays, the society in which we live is submerged in an economic crisis that began at least 10 years ago and supposed for Spain that other problems appeared since then; the end of the real-estate bubble, the bank crisis of 2010 and finally the increase of unemployment. This work is intended to carry out a study of the unemployment rate in Andalucia since January 2005 to see the evolution of this rate throughout the years and with this data to make a study of temporary series which allows us to obtain prediction of the unemployment rate evolution in the following years. Finally, a series of conclusion can be drawn based on the obtained results and we will value if the current crisis can improve or on the contrary, it will worsen and if so, to put measures to solve it.