Cuantificación de incertidumbres en la reconstrucción paleohidrológica en valles encajonados: aplicación al río Guadalquivir
Fecha
2016
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Jaén: Universidad de Jaén
Resumen
[ES]La cuenca del río Eliche, situada en el sur de la provincia de Jaén, presenta un riesgo de inundación elevado debido a la presencia de urbanizaciones ilegales en su llanura de inundación desde finales del siglo XX. Los diferentes eventos de alto caudal han causado numerosos daños materiales. Estos eventos, además de correlacionarse correctamente con los producidos en el río Guadalquivir, también presentan un origen local causante de inundaciones fast-flood o repentinas que no suceden en el mismo, por lo que esta cuenca presenta una hidrodinámica más completa. Mediante este trabajo se evalúan los diferentes episodios de inundación en la cuenca, los cambios que se han producido en la morfología del río Eliche y las evidencias paleohidrológicas existentes de dichos episodios en la actualidad. Con estos datos se ha realizado una reconstrucción paleohidrológica mediante el cálculo calibrado en 1D y 2D de diferentes variables fluidas del evento de mayor magnitud dentro del período instrumental. Finalmente se ha deducido que la metodología correcta para realizar un estudio hidráulico de la cuenca del río Eliche es a través de cálculos bidimensionales debido a la alta incertidumbre que incluían los modelos unidimensionales.
[EN]The Eliche river basin, located in the south of the province of Jaén, presents a high risk of flooding due to the presence of illegal buildings in the floodpain since the late twentieth century. Different high flow events have caused significant damage in this site. These events, correlate properly with those produced in the river Guadalquivir, also have a local origin causing flash floods that do not happen in it, so this basin presents a more complete hydrodynamics. Through this paper, the different episodes of flooding in the basin and the changes that have occurred in the morphology of the Eliche River have been analysed. The existing paleohydrological evidences of such episodes have been evaluated also. With these data a paleohydrological reconstruction was performed by calibrating both 1D and 2D models for different fluid variables in the largest event of flood. Finally, it has been inferred that the correct methodology for a hydraulic study of the Eliche river is through two-dimensional calculations due to the high uncertainty that include one-dimensional models.
[EN]The Eliche river basin, located in the south of the province of Jaén, presents a high risk of flooding due to the presence of illegal buildings in the floodpain since the late twentieth century. Different high flow events have caused significant damage in this site. These events, correlate properly with those produced in the river Guadalquivir, also have a local origin causing flash floods that do not happen in it, so this basin presents a more complete hydrodynamics. Through this paper, the different episodes of flooding in the basin and the changes that have occurred in the morphology of the Eliche River have been analysed. The existing paleohydrological evidences of such episodes have been evaluated also. With these data a paleohydrological reconstruction was performed by calibrating both 1D and 2D models for different fluid variables in the largest event of flood. Finally, it has been inferred that the correct methodology for a hydraulic study of the Eliche river is through two-dimensional calculations due to the high uncertainty that include one-dimensional models.